Oh to be Ali!

So Ali has won 4 games this season. Last season, the "other Murtaza" won an obscene number of games and even made it to the postseason. Both these guys did all this without ever logging in to change their rosters. They did not even bother to change their players who were in their BYE weeks.

So the question I asked myself is this -- where would I be if I was like them? Certainly not 8-2 in the season. But would I be close enough? All the time that I have spent in analyzing and over analyzing and picking up Free Agents and proposing trades and agonizing over who to start every single week -- was it all for naught? How much of an advantage did that give me -- give us? Ladies and Gentleman ... we are about to find out.

Before I get into it, I want all of you to do answer this to yourself about your own team. How do you think you would have done had you been inactive throughout the season.
You all know your current records. This is what all of us have scored through our first 10 weeks.
Vishal 947
Shirin 837
Niral 807
Meghna 827
Darshini 829
Murtaza 932
ShilpiJimit 929
Devashree 920
Valmik 855
Prashant 781
Ali 748
Saumil 920

So this is what I did (and which is why it has taken me 3 weeks to write this article.) I looked at the draft and based on first picks, built a team for eg. the first RB that you picked became your RB, the first 2 WRs that you picked became your WR. The second RB or the third WR that you picked (whichever you picked first) became your Flex .. and so on.
Based on the rosters above, I assumed that that would be your team for 10 weeks, even when any of those players were on BYE.

Now we know that without ever logging in, Ali has scored 748 points.

Do you know how much you all would have scored. Take a moment and write down a number and your expected win-loss record that you think you would have gotten had you never logged in after the draft. Results will follow.



HOW DID WE DO AS A LEAGUE?

As a league, we have scored 9584 points (excluding Ali's team coz he was inactive). Now if our whole league was inactive, we would have scored 8,510 points.
So let's analyze our performance.

Fact 1: If we only logged in to change our players on BYE weeks replacing them with players who score let's say 30% less than the player we replaced.
Why 30% less ... because we are assuming that we have picked the best players so when they go on BYE, we pick second string players.
Fact 2: Our roster is of 8 players. So far all teams have gone on a BYE. This means that if we never logged in, at some point of the other, all of players were on BYE. 10 weeks into the season, 8 players per week, we have started 80 players out of whom 8 have been on bye.

So the least increase we should get is as follows:

SUM(DRAFT PLAYER POINTS) + SUM(DRAFT PLAYER POINTS) *0.1 * 0.7 and this number should be less than 9,584. (if this equation doesnt make sense, call me)

Good news is that is is:

If we had a totally inactive league. we would have ended up scoring 8510 points to this point. So the least our league should have scored would be:
8510 + 8510 * 0.1 * 0.7 = 9105.

Hurray!!! we have indeed done better than expected. Keep in mind that this is the least we should have done. This assumes that all we did is replace players on BYE with players who perform to 70% of their capabilities. Thats not hard.

So how much did we improve. From 8,510 to 9,584 points -- thats a 12% increase. So for all our activity of picking up and starting new payers and shuffling players on our bench, we improved our score by 12% than if we did NOTHING AT ALL! Is that acceptable? Well it is better than the least expected improvement of 7%. So we have not done very badly. However I want to see how we do through the years to figure out what is the average bump that activity brings in.


HOW DID WE ALL DO INDIVIDUALLY? Let's go over it alphabetically.

Skipping Ali because his actual score is equal to his inactive score

DARSHINI:
D has scored 829 points thus far. If she had been inactive she would have only scored 721 points. Thats an increase of a 108 points or almost 15%. Kudos.
IF D had been inactive, everyone else was active and Ali remained inactive, she would have won 4 games. She currently has won 5. So with all the activity, D, you have got 1 more win for yourself :) Still worth it wouldnt you say?
Darshini's drafted team: Tony Romo, Kevin Smith, Derrick Ward, Randy Moss, Bernard Berrian, Tony Gonzalez, Giants D/ST, Nate Kaeding,

I am going to skip Devashree and do her analysis last coz its fun!

MEGHNA:
MJ has scored 827 points thus far. If she was inactive and never ever logged in to set her team, she would have scored 814 points. Thats only an increase of 13 points or 2%. Well below the acceptable range. She has however won 3 games thus far ... btu if she were inactive and everyone else remained the same -- she would have won only 2 games. So KUDOS ...even though you didnt score higher points, all the activity still got you 1 win more. BTW Meghna ... your team would have been the second highest scorer if everyone in the league was inactive. So you drafted well. unfortunately you could not make the right personnel moves throughout the season.
Meghna's Drafted Team: Kurt Warner, DeAngelo Williams, Thomas Jones, Vincent Jackson, Santana Moss, Jason Witten, Titans D/ST, Matt Prater

MURTAZA:
I have scored 932 points thus far. If I was inactive, I would have scored 767 ... That is a difference of 165 points or 21%!! Awesome! I also would have won only 5 games if I was inactive. Now I have won 8 ... seems like either I drafted very badly ... or have made some nice moves since. Don't worry though, there are teams who have done even better than I have.
Murtaza's Drafted Team: Matt Cassel, Maurice Jones-Drew, Frank Gore, Anquan Boldin, Braylon Edwards, Dallas Clark, Panthers D/ST, David Akers

NIRAL:
The Commish has had a wretched season this year. Would he have been well served to just sit this one out? Turns out -- YES!
He scored 807 points thus far. Inactivity would have gotten him only 748. Thats an increase of 59 points or 7.8%. Just about the minimum required. Even by drafting a bad team, the commish wasnt able to pick up reliable free agents. And you know what the worst part is -- even if he was inactive throughout the 10 weeks, he still would have won 1 game out of 10. Hindsight is 20-20 but this year, the commish would have done as well even if he had just "taken a knee".
Niral's Drafted Team: Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Marques Colston, T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Visanthe Shiancoe, Vikings D/ST, Rob Bironas

PRASHANT:
Total current score: 781 points. Inactivity score: 695 points. Thats an increase of 86 points or 12% ... about the league's average. The problem was unfortunately for Prashant that he drafted a bad team out of the gate. Compared to everyone else's inactive score ... his is the least. He did well in bringing it up by 86 points. Unfortunately like Niral, he would have also won 3 games, the same as his current record. Sorry Buddy!
Prashant's Drafted Team: Philip Rivers, Brandon Jacobs, Ryan Grant, Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Chris Cooley, Jets D/ST, Jason Elam

SAUMIL:
Total current score: 920 points. Inactivity score: 798 points. That's an increase of 122 points or 15%. That is pretty good. Again just like me, Saumil would have only won 5 games. Thats a jump of 3 games for him as well. Seems like Saumil and I are having a great season. May the good times continue :)
Saumil's Drafted Team: Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, Clinton Portis, Reggie Wayne, Hines Ward, Antonio Gates, Ravens D/ST, John Kasay

SHILPI & JIMIT:
Total current score: 929. Inactivity Score: 731. That's an increase of 198 points. BY FAR THE BEST JUMP. KUDOS! Your picksups and gameday decisions have served you well! You guys have increased your score to 27%!! KUDOS! You would have won only 3 games if you were inactive and now you are not only the highest scorers in the league but also managed to gain 3 more games to get your win-loss record to 6-4. Great job done!
Shilpi & Jimit's Drafted Team: Peyton Manning, Brian Westbrook, Larry Johnson, Greg Jennings, Chad Ochocinco, Greg Olsen, Eagles D/ST, Stephen Gostkowski

SHIRIN:
Total Current Score: 837. Inactivity Score: 758. That's an increase of 79 points or 10%. Acceptable increase. However your inactivity would have also won you 4 games. Just like your activity did. I am guessing that all this does not matter to you. In your rookie year itself, you beat both your brother and your husband. What else can you ask for? :)
Shirin's Drafted Team: Jay Cutler, Adrian Peterson, Pierre Thomas, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith, Kellen Winslow, Patriots D/ST, Nick Folk

VALMIK:
Total current score: 855 Inactivity Score: 746. Thats an increase of a 109 points or 14.6% ... impressive. Without doing anything, Valmik would have still won 5 games. He has managed to win a game more and thus has positioned himself to be in the postseason.
Valmik's Drafted Team: Tom Brady, Ronnie Brown, Willie Parker, Larry Fitzgerald, Roy E. Williams, Zach Miller, Steelers D/ST, Robbie Gould

VISHAL:
Total Current Score: 947. Inactivity Score: 799. That is an increase of 148 points. Third most after Shilpi/Jimit and I. 18% increase. At 6-4, Vishal has scored 3 more victories than he would have had he not done anything. Good Job!!
Vishal's Drafted Team: Aaron Rodgers, Marion Barber, Jonathan Stewart, Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Dustin Keller, Chargers D/ST, Neil Rackers

That brings me to DEVASHREE:
This is one of the reasons I like to play around with numbers. Listen Up!
Total Current Score: 920.
IF Devashree had never logged in. Never changed players. Never picked up Free Agents. Not even replace players who were on BYE!!!! She would have still scored 933 points!!!!!!!! So with all this activity and replacing players, SHE ACTUALLY HAS SCORED LESS!!! LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL!!!

She has however won 1 more game than she would have had she been inactive. So in that sense, it's been useful ... but imagine this ... her drafted team was so strong that she would have still outscored all of us (except Vishal) even if she had done nothing at all. I am glad I went through all this pain of gathering and arranging all this data. This itself makes it worth my while :)
So if you are wondering -- this is her drafted team
Drew Brees, Chris Johnson, Joseph Addai, Brandon Marshall, Lee Evans, Owen Daniels, Dolphins D/ST, Ryan Longwell


PHEW!!

I also wondered what would the standings be like IF ALL OF US WERE INACTIVE!
Here goes:
Team Win-Loss Total Points
Saumil 7-3 798
Devashree 6-4 933
Vishal 6-4 799
Ali 6-4 748
Meghna 5-5 814
Murtaza 5-5 767
Shirin 5-5 758
Valmik 5-5 746
ShilpiJimit 5-5 731
Darshini 4-6 721
Niral 3-7 748
Prashant 3-7 695


And finally before I leave you all, here is the updated standings of head-to-head matchups after week 10:
Saumil 67-42-1
ShilpiJimit 66-44-0
Murtaza 65-45-0
Vishal 64-46-0
Devashree 62-48-0
Valmik 57-51-2
Darshini 52-57-1
Shirin 49-60-1
Meghna 48-60-2
Prashant 43-67-0
Niral 42-66-2
Ali 40-69-1

I hope you guys enjoyed reading this as much as I did writing this. There was too much work involved in gathering all this and comparing all the matchups etc. It took me 3 weeks to write which is why there was no blog for the past 3 weeks. Until next week ... Adios!

I'd also like to say we miss the Feku Baba.

Cheers,
Murtaza