Just like the NFL this year, our fantasy league also has too many teams whose records are bundled so close together that the race to the postseason will come down to the wire. Ours already has.
With 1 week remaining in the regular season, as many as 5 different teams can end up with the top 2 spots.
As many as 10 teams still have a shot at reaching the postseason.
So if you are not Devashree or I and you are wondering what would it take for you to reach the postseason/get into the top 2 and get a bye, read on. I have broken down each and every team's chances even though mine stand at 0.
Glossary: Points 1,2,3.. are the different combination of results that could get you the desired result
HAS TO HAPPEN tells you stuff that definitely needs to come true for you to reach your goal.So basically you take your HAS TO HAPPEN and then combine with any of the points below (1,2,3) and you get your complete set of options.
Also, when I say something like, Shirin's score < Niral's score + 105, it means that if you and someone else have the same record, the tiebreaker is total points for the season and based on the scoring so far, this equation will tell you how much more/less you need to score as compared to the other person to break the tie in your favor. In the example above, Niral would only need to score within 105 points of Shirin's score. Meaning if Shirin scored 110, he would only need 5. Similarly, an exampe like Niral's score < Valmik's score - 42 means that Valmik has to score atleast 42 more points than Niral to break the tie in his favor. So if Niral scores 90, Valmik would need to score atleast 132.
Anways, read on and you will get the idea.I have done this based on the order of the standings.
Niral (8-4 record, 1133 points)
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PostSeason: Qualified
Top 2 Rank: In Contention
To get into the top 2, Niral needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
1) Niral wins, Shirin loses.
2) Niral wins, Shirin wins, Shirin's score < Niral's score + 105
3) Niral wins, Shirin wins, Shirin's score > Niral's score + 105, Valmik wins, Valmik's score < Niral's score + 42
4) Niral wins, Shirin wins, Shirin's score > Niral's score + 105, Jimit/Shilpi wins, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Niral's score + 48
5) Niral loses, Shirin loses, Shirin's score < Niral's score + 105, Vishal loses, Valmik loses, Valmik's score < Niral's score + 42
6) Niral loses, Shirin loses, Shirin's score < Niral's score + 105, Vishal loses, Jimit/Shilpi loses, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Niral's score + 48
7) Niral loses, Shirin loses, Shirin's score < Niral's score + 105, Vishal wins, Vishal's score < Niral's score + 56, Valmik loses, Valmik's score < Niral's score + 42
8) Niral loses, Shirin loses, Shirin's score < Niral's score + 105, Vishal wins, Vishal's score < Niral's score + 56, Jimit/Shilpi loses, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Niral's score + 48
Important: Option 1 or 2 are the most likeliest to get Niral in. If Niral can win, he is almost assured of coming in the top 2 because the chances that Shirin outscoring Niral by more than a 100 points is very unlikely. Even this past week, Deven scored 147 and Meghna 44 but even that margin isnt equal to a 105 (although it is pretty darn close!)
One scenario that will certainly cost Niral a place in the top 2: Niral loses, Shirin wins.
Valmik (8-4 record, 1091 points)
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Postseason: Qualified
Top 2 Rank: In Contention
To get into the top 2, Valmik needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
1) Valmik wins, Niral loses
2) Valmik wins, Shirin loses
3) Valmik wins, Niral wins, Shirin wins, Shirin's score < Valmik's score + 63
4) Valmik wins, Niral wins, Shirin wins, Niral's score < Valmik's score - 42
5) Valmik loses, Niral loses, Shirin loses, Vishal loses, Shirin's score < Valmik's score + 63, Niral's score < Valmik's score - 42
6) Valmik loses, Niral loses, Shirin loses, Vishal wins, Shirin's score < Valmik's score + 63, Vishal's score < Valmik's score + 14, Niral's score < Valmik's score - 42
Important: Winning will almost certainly cement Valmik's place in the top 2
One scenario that will certainly cost Valmik a place in the top 2: Valmik loses and either Shirin or Niral wins.
Jimit/Shilpi (8-4 record, 1085 points)
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Postseason: Qualified
Top 2 Rank: In Contention
To get into the top 2, conditions for Jimit are the same as Valmik except for the score differentials needed.
1) Jimit/Shilpi win, Niral loses
2) Jimit/Shilpi win, Shirin loses
3) Jimit/Shilpi win, Niral wins, Shirin wins, Shirin's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score + 57
4) Jimit/Shilpi win, Niral wins, Shirin wins, Niral's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score - 48
5) Jimit/Shilpi lose, Niral loses, Shirin loses, Vishal loses, Shirin's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score + 57, Niral's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score - 48
6) Jimit/Shilpi lose, Niral loses, Shirin loses, Vishal wins, Shirin's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score + 57, Vishal's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score + 8, Niral's score < Jimit/Shilpi's score - 48
Shirin (8-4 record, 1028 points)
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Postseason: Qualified
Top 2 Rank: In Contention
To get into the top 2, Shirin needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
1) Shirin wins, Niral loses.
3) Shirin wins, Niral wins, Niral's Score < Shirin's score - 105
2) Shirin wins, Niral wins, Valmik wins, Valmik's score < Shirin's score - 63
4) Shirin wins, Niral wins, Jimit/Shilpi wins, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Shirin's score - 57
5) Shirin loses, Niral loses, Vishal loses, Valmik loses, Niral's Score < Shirin's score - 105, Valmik's score < Shirin's score - 63
6) Shirin loses, Niral loses, Vishal loses, Jimit/Shilpi lose, Niral's Score < Shirin's score - 105, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Shirin's score - 57
7) Shirin loses, Niral loses, Vishal wins, Valmik loses, Niral's Score < Shirin's score - 105, Valmik's score < Shirin's score - 63, Vishal's score < Shirin's score - 49
8) Shirin loses, Niral loses, Vishal wins, Jimit/Shilpi lose, Niral's Score < Shirin's score - 105, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Shirin's score - 57, Vishal's score < Shirin's score - 49
Important: Niral losing & Shirin Winning is the ONLY real option for Shirin. If she loses and even if Niral loses, there is almost negligible probability that she will outscore Niral by a 105 points. Everything else then becomes a moot point. I guess Deven has someone else rooting for him this weekend!
Vishal (7-5 record, 1077 points)
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Postseason: In Contention
Top 2 Rank: In Contention
Vishal is the only person who can THEORETICALLY be eliminated from the playoffs and also make the top 2 rank depending on how results go.
To get into the top 2, Vishal needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
HAS TO HAPPEN: Vishal wins, Shirin loses, Niral loses, Shirin's score < Vishal Score + 49, Niral's score < Vishal' Score - 56
With the above, one of the below has to happen as well
1) Valmik loses, Valmik's Score < Vishal's score -14
2) Jimit/Shilpi lose, Jimit/Shilpi's score < Vishal's score - 8
That's it. Not many scenarios for Vishal ending up in the top 2. A lot has to happen for him to jump up 3 spots. Most notably, he has to outscore Niral by 56 points. It is not very improbable but still a very outside shot.
To get into the postseason, Vishal needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
1) Vishal wins.
2) Vishal loses, Darshini loses
3) Vishal loses, Meghna loses
4) Vishal loses, Darshini wins, Meghna wins, Darshini's Score < Vishal's score + 146, Meghna's score < Vishal's score + 188
Important: Although Mathematically possible, it is as close to impossible as we can be. To not qualify for the playoffs, Vishal would have to be OUTSCORED by Darshini & Meghna by 146 and 188 points respectively, No one in our league has ever come close to scoring 188 points, let alone outscore someone by that margin!
Darshini (6-6 record, 931 points)
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Postseason: In Contention
Top 2 Rank: Out
To get into the postseason, Darshini needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
1) Darshini wins, Meghna loses.
2) Darshini wins, Meghna wins, Meghna's Score < Darshini's score + 42
3) Darshini wins, Meghna wins, Vishal loses, Vishal's Score < Darshini's score - 146
4) Darshini loses, Deven loses, Prashant loses, Saumil wins, Saumil's Score < Darshini's score + 37, Meghna's Score < Darshini's score + 42
5) Darshini loses, Deven wins, Prashant loses, Saumil wins, Saumil's Score < Darshini's score + 37, Deven's Score < Darshini's Score - 125, Meghna's Score < Darshini's score + 42
7) Darshini loses, Deven loses, Prashant wins, Saumil wins, Saumil's Score < Darshini's score + 37, Prashant's Score < Darshini's Score - 11, Meghna's Score < Darshini's score + 42
8) Darshini loses, Deven wins, Prashant wins, Saumil wins, Saumil's Score < Darshini's score + 37, Prashant's Score < Darshini's Score - 11, Meghna's Score < Darshini's score + 42, Deven's Score < Darshini's Score - 125
Important: Let's assume Vishal will take up the 5th postseason spot (which he almost certainly will), Darshini, Meghna, Deven, Prashant & Saumil will fight for the remaining 1 spot on the postseason. The easiest way in for Darshini is that she wins. If she does, she has a 42 point advantage of Meghna and that will help her get in even if Meghna wins, unless Meghna wins big!
If she loses, Meghna HAS TO LOSE for her to have a shot. After that there's a very crowded backfield vying for that position.
Meghna (6-6 record, 889 points)
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Postseason: In Contention
Top 2 Rank: Out
To get into the postseason, Meghna needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
HAS TO HAPPEN: Meghna wins
With the above, one of the below has to happen as well
1) Darshini loses.
2) Darshini wins, Darshini's Score < Meghna's Score - 42
3) Darshini wins, Vishal loses, Vishal's Score < Meghna's Score - 188
Important: Why can Darshini lose but not Meghna? Well ... If Meghna loses that means Saumil wins. And Saumil has more points than Meghna so she would rank after Saumil and that would mean that if everyone else also manages to lose, Saumil will always be higher than Meghna to claim that 1 remaining spot. So Meghna YOU CANNOT LOSE. Also you better pray that Darshini loses otherwise even if you win, you have to outscore her next week by 42 points (or even worse, try to beat Vishal by 188 points :))
Deven (5-7 record, 1056 points)
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Postseason: In contention
Top 2 Rank: Out
To get into the postseason, Deven needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
HAS TO HAPPEN: Deven wins, Meghna loses, Darshini loses, Meghna's Score < Deven's Score + 167, Saumil's Score < Deven's Score + 162, Darshini's Score < Deven's Score + 125
With the above, one of the below has to happen as well
1) Prashant loses
2) Prashant wins, Prashant's Score < Deven's Score + 114
Important: Deven is ahead of all the other 4 contenders (for the final berth) by ATLEAST a 100 points. But he is a game behind Meghna & Darshini. So for him, the number matching wouldnt come into pay in all likelihood.
In effect, there is just one scenario for Deven to qualify. his high score will take of the rest.
Deven wins, Meghna loses, Darshini loses.
Prashant (5-7 record, 942 points)
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Postseason: In Contention
Top 2 Rank: Out
To get into the postseason, Prashant needs to have one of these scenarios happen.
HAS TO HAPPEN: Prashant wins, Meghna loses, Darshini loses, Meghna's Score < Prashant's Score + 53, Darshini's Score < Prashant's Score + 11, Saumil's Score < Prashant's Score + 48
With the above, one of the below has to happen as well
1) Deven loses
2) Deven wins, Deven's Score < Prashant's Score - 114
Important: Just like Deven, Prashant needs a lot to happen to qualify. However, Prashant also does not want to compete with Deven. He lags Deven by a whopping 114 points.
Option 1 is the only legitimate option for Prashant.
Saumil (5-7 record, 894 points)
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Postseason: In Contention
Top 2 Rank: Out
To get into the postseason, Saumil needs to have one of these scenarios happen
HAS TO HAPPEN: Saumil wins, Darshini loses, Darshini's Score < Saumil's Score -37
With the above, one of the below has to happen as well
1) Deven loses, Prashant loses
2) Deven wins, Prashant loses, Deven's Score < Saumil's Score - 162
3) Deven loses, Prashant wins, Prashant's Score < Saumil's Score - 48
4) Deven wins, Prashant wins, Prashant's Score < Saumil's Score - 48, Deven's Score < Saumil's Score - 162
Important: Saumil is really hanging by a thread here. He, like all others, cannot outscore Deven. He will have a tough time outscoring Prashant by 48 points. So all he has left to hope for is not only that Darshini, Deven and Prashant to lose but also to win against Meghna and in process outscore Darshini by 37 points!
Things might look bleak for my friend here but dont forget, people wrote him off at 1-5 as well and he came back. Keep the faith buddy .. stranger things have happened.
Devashree (4-8 record, 929 points)
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Postseason: Out
Top 2 Rank: Out
Murtaza (2-10 record, 926 points)
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Postseason: Out
Top 2 Rank: Out
Chance of coming anything else but dead last: Out
So there you go. These are your chances. With the field spread so wide open, you might find yourself rooting for strange teams this time.
All the best.
